Tyler Shough’s inaugural full season as a starter poses challenges for the New Orleans Saints, whereas the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take another concerning step back. In this simulation (they secure a second straight division title), resulting in the acquisition of the No. 1 seed in their division. Heading into 2026 (the Chicago Bears may be the most captivating team), offering several reasons to anticipate both decline and ongoing progress. In Jacksonville — Liam Coen keeps developing a true contender, and a series of four consecutive victories to finish the year ensured another division title. In a competitive AFC South showdown, the Tennessee Titans narrowly fail to secure a playoff position with eight wins, while the Indianapolis Colts fall short for the sixth consecutive year.
The Bengals are back in (though), four years since facing the Chiefs in back-to-back conference championship games. In this scenario (it’s highly likely that the team gets a good look at Carson Beck), but that they’re also in the market for his immediate replacement in the 2027 NFL Draft. It’s hard not to feel sorry for the Cardinals, with three of the top teams in the NFL all playing for their division. The Buffalo Bills get back on top of their division, with the Patriots winning six fewer games in this simulation than they did in 2025. The FPM projects Pittsburgh for just over eight wins (and only five would be a huge surprise), but it’s within the range of outcomes. We ran a 2026 season simulation using PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, which uses PFSN’s strength of schedule rankings and power rankings to predict each of the 272 games individually.
- The Cowboys close the season with games against divisional foes, the Commanders and Giants.
- If the eight divisions play out exactly as we see above in our projected standings, here’s what the 14-team playoff bracket would look like.
- Adding Azeez Ojulari was a pretty nice move (and I like what this team did in the draft), continuing to stock great players.
- Just don’t look at the weeks immediately after, or — for reasons that I will explain next — before.
- The Eagles are going back to the playoffs — and perhaps all the way back to the Super Bowl.
High point: Weeks 1-5.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning is a big betting favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The Seahawks’ offensive unknowns seemed to influence the final win-loss decision whenever more stable operations appeared on the calendar. Despite having a week off to prepare (and the added benefit of catching the Commanders on short rest fresh off a loss at Kansas City), the Seahawks are unable to capture a potentially season-altering victory at the midpoint. The win pushes Seattle above .500 for the first and last time in 2025.
Toughest game to call: Week 3 at Bears.
In all seriousness, both teams failed to make the playoffs last year but should be expected to challenge this year. The Raiders would field plenty of calls for the first overall pick — with the team unlikely to be in the market for one of the draft’s top quarterback prospects. Meanwhile ( hockey betting tips for only the third time since the 2013 season), the AFC champions will be a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs or the Patriots, as both missed the playoffs. All four teams finish with winning records, as the NFC North maintains its status as one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. The New York Jets show signs of progression with seven wins and have an enviable stack of 2027 draft picks to improve their young roster further.
Six of the bottom seven teams could realistically finish the year with first-, second-, or third-year quarterbacks under center. With just 0.3 wins separating the Jaguars and the Houston Texans — and just two wins between all four teams, the AFC South is expected to be the tightest division. It also gives us the number of simulations in which a team wins the division and makes the playoffs. For preseason rankings, it incorporates how quarterback and coaching changes might impact those teams.
Ultimately (as much as I would love it narratively), it’s tough for me to predict a Detroit win here. Plenty of eyes will be on the Lions following the offseason defections of key members of the coaching staff, and I have them responding well, racing out to a strong start … Williams threw for 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns amid total chaos as a rookie in 2024.
Even though the bottom falls out after Thanksgiving — I suspect many of those December games — like at Houston and against Atlanta — will end up being close. After winning consecutive road games (including this matchup at Seattle), the Cardinals hit the midpoint at 6-3, putting themselves in the thick of the NFC West race. Tampa could certainly outperform my projection early on — but I’ll be more confident in the timing of the team’s eventual course correction once its talented left tackle and sure-handed WR2 return to the starting lineup. Back-to-back wins give the devoted NOLA fans something to celebrate — and rookie Tyler Shough a moment of respite in an otherwise-challenging rookie season. Four of Carolina’s six projected wins are within the NFC South, marking just the second time the franchise has posted a winning divisional record in a decade. Instead (Atlanta finishes with nine total losses), allowing Tampa to sit its starters in the regular-season finale.
I oscillated on this matchup before ultimately choosing Atlanta. The 2025 Panthers may exemplify a team that exceeds its expected record. An impressive start could greatly benefit this franchise. If Bryce Young’s resurgence in his second year continues into Year 3 and the restructured defense operates effectively from the outset — a victory for Carolina at Jacksonville is certainly possible. Struggling to convert competitive outings—including this narrow loss at Lambeau—into victories, the Panthers reach the season’s midpoint with only two wins. His potential is quite high — so it wouldn’t surprise me if he and his team surpass my expectations by making a playoff run similar to what Bo Nix and the Broncos achieved last year.
With the teams owning picks 2-6 all likely looking for a quarterback in this scenario, it’s highly likely the Jets would need to use that draft capital to pull off a trade. In their first five games of the season, the Eagles face four teams that made the 2024 playoffs … As high as I am on the 49ers, even great teams have bad games. You’ll find our conference seeding for the entire playoff field, including our individual picks for the eight division winners and six wild-card teams.
Could Jaxson Dart leap over Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to lead the Giants to the playoffs this year, proving both of us wrong here? Just don’t look at the weeks immediately after, or — for reasons that I will explain next — before. In my scenario (the bad vibes spill over into a rough start that reaches its nadir in this loss to the Panthers), which drops the ‘Boys to 1-5. This stretch could make or break a return to the playoffs if things go a little better than either of us is forecasting during Brian Schottenheimer’s first season.
I appreciate the Vikings’ overall strategy, and I am confident that McCarthy is poised to become an excellent quarterback in Minnesota. What could be a better moment for the Vikings to achieve a significant victory than in J.J.? After their transatlantic journey, the Vikings receive a bye before entering a three-game losing streak. Last season (adding veteran running back Josh Jacobs to the offense proved successful), and rookie receiver Matthew Golden is set to shine this year. The emotional letdown makes this setback notably more impactful than being swept by the Bears for the first time since 2007. Ultimately, Rodgers’ former team maintains an early momentum, diminishing some of Pittsburgh’s promising start and reducing the Steelers’ record to 4-3.
A tough one at Tampa at the end of November kicks off a brutal stretch that includes home-and-away tilts against the Rams, as well as trips to Houston and Cincinnati. When this team is at full strength, I think it can be a problem for anybody — including the mighty Eagles. But I’d be surprised if this team doesn’t encounter its fair share of growing pains as it ushers in a new era of Saints football. But I wouldn’t count out a rested Saints team making a statement at home against a hated rival.
There are enough veteran leaders on hand for New Orleans to win twice as many games as projected, presuming competent quarterback play. But as promising as the improved pass rush might look on paper — I won’t be convinced the team has fixed its issues in that area until I see it when the games count. It’ll be fun to see what the discussion is around these two teams — and this game, a few months from now. The Packers are a very good team — and they will make the playoffs for the third straight time. The Giants have a window to potentially stack a couple of wins together here — when they host the Chargers (who must endure the dreaded early East Coast start time), then visit the rebuilding Saints.